Importance of a Population Policy in Pakistan

The primary purpose of this lecture is to make a case for an integrated and effective population policy in Pakistan. An effective population policy is critical in its own right. It is also essential for maximising the positive outcome of all of Pakistan’s development efforts. Despite some very modest progress, the overall population growth rate is still so high that it warrants serious concern. Among the top ten contributors to world population growth during 1995–2000, Pakistan stood third in absolute number, and was Number One in rate of growth. The average total fertility rate per woman of 5.2 in Pakistan, as compared to 2.4 in Indonesia, 2.9 in Iran, and 3.1 in India, is indeed problematic and requires an appropriate policy response. A broader view of population growth and economic development is suggested instead of a narrow family planning focus. Thus family planning programmes (supply-side) would be effective only when the population at large has the desire or motivation for smaller families (demand-side). It is shown that the demand-side of the equation is influenced by a host of social, cultural, religious, educational, and other factors. For purposes of this paper, all these are taken together and termed the knowledge factor. It is suggested that a successful population policy must have a clear focus on increasing the knowledge factor in the country through education and advocacy. Based on the policy experiences of other developing countries and the recent demographic realities in Pakistan, an effective population policy must address the following three objectives: (a) reduction in the rate and incidence of unwanted fertility; (b) reduction in demand for large-size families; and (c) greater investment in adolescents to tackle the population momentum problem. The lecture concludes that Pakistan still has a population problem that it must deal with by a comprehensive and effective population programme. Failure to do so would magnify the current problems which are a result of previous policy neglect.

Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks-trade liberlisation and a decline in remittances from abroad-on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reducation in the absesnce of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and ruralhouseholds. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberlisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduced welfare in urban households but rural households still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. the combined shock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than for households in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and reduction in poverty level in rural households in less than the welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberlisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberlisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the posve impact of trade liberlisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances. It shows that teh decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in pakistan.Trade, Remittances, Poverty, Pakistan

Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios (1) labour is homogeneous (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicatorsCapital inflow, Poverty, Pakistan

Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan : The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks - trade liberalisation and a decline in remittances from abroad- on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reduction in the absence of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and rural households. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberalisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduces welfare in urban households but rural household still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. The combined stock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberalisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of decline in remittances. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan.This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks - trade liberalisation and a decline in remittances from abroad- on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reduction in the absence of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. In addition, poverty reduces by a larger percentage in urban households than in rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and rural households. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberalisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduces welfare in urban households but rural household still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. The combined stock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberalisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of decline in remittances. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan.Trade Liberalisation, remittance, poverty, households

Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

This paper explores the impact of two shocks, trade liberalisation policies and decline in remittances, on welfare and poverty in Pakistan. It begins by reviewing the economy, which reveals that during the Nineties although import tariffs were reduced by 55 percent, poverty however remained higher in this period than in the Eighties. At the same time, Pakistan has experienced a slow down in the inflow of remittances, which reduces the incomes of households and puts pressure on the exchange rate resulting in reduction in the inflow of imports despite a reduction in import duties. Thus, in the absence of the effects of decline in remittances, the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policies may render biased results. This study overcomes this constriction and analyses the impact of trade liberalisation policies in the absence and presence of decline in remittances in a CGE framework with all the features necessary for trade policy analysis with poverty and remittances linkages. The simulation results show that a decline in remittances reduces the gains from trade liberalisation. The negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. But, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances in the case of rural areas. Poverty rises in Pakistan as a whole. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan during the Nineties.Pakistan, Remittances, Trade Policy, CGE, Poverty

Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan

Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios: (1) labour is homogeneous; (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicators.Capital inflow; Poverty; Pakistan

Role of Many-particle excitations in Coulomb Blockaded Transport

We discuss the role of electron-electron and electron-phonon correlations in current flow in the Coulomb Blockade regime, focusing specifically on nontrivial signatures arising from the break-down of mean-field theory. By solving transport equations directly in Fock space, we show that electron-electron interactions manifest as gateable excitations experimentally observed in the current-voltage characteristic. While these excitations might merge into an incoherent sum that allows occasional simplifications, a clear separation of excitations into slow `traps' and fast `channels' can lead to further novelties such as negative differential resistance, hysteresis and random telegraph signals. Analogous novelties for electron-phonon correlation include the breakdown of commonly anticipated Stokes-antiStokes intensities, and an anomalous decrease in phonon population upon heating due to reabsorption of emitted phonons.Comment: 14 pages 10 figures, Invited article for the special issue on "Conductivity of single molecules and supramolecular architectures", IOP Journal of Physics Condensed matte